Nuclear reactor project at the World's Largest
Dimona has conducted experiments in pilot scale laser and centrifuge enrichment, purifies uranium dioxide (UO2), converts uranium hexafluoride (UF6,), and fabricates fuel for weapons purpose.
1. Uranium phosphate mining in the Negev, near Beersheba, and yellowcake is produced at two plants in the Haifa area and one in southern Israel.
2. Pilot-scale heavy water plant operating at Rehovot.
3. Estimates of numbers and types of weapons differ sharply :
a. No agreement exists over the plutonium output from the reactor at Dimona. Which is reported at power outputs from 75-200 megawatts. Satellite photos indicate that output is more likely to be below 140 megawatts.
b. Stockpile of at least 60-80 plutonium weapons.
c. May have well over 100 nuclear weapons assemblies, with some weapons with yields over 100 kilotons.
d. U.S. experts believe Israel has highly advanced implosion weapons. Known to have produced Lithium-6, allowing production of both tritium and lithium deuteride at Dimona. Facility no longer believed to be operating.
* Some weapons may be ER variants or have variable yields.
*Stockpile of up to 300-400 weapons is possible. Lower limit could be 70-100.gsss
* There exists a possibility that Israel may have developed thermonuclear warheads.
Major weapons facilities include production of weapons-grade plutonium at Dimona, nuclear weapons designfacility at Nahal Soreq (south of Tel Aviv), missile test facility at Palmachim, nuclear armed missile storage facility at Kefar Zekharya, nuclear weapons assembly facility at Yodefat, and tactical nuclear weapons storage facility at Eilabun in eastern Galilee.
A useful rule of thumb for gauging the proliferation of any given reactor is that 1 Megawatt-day (thermal energy release, not electricity output) of operation produces 1 gram of Plutonium in any reactor using 20% or lower Enriched Uranium.
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The number of nuclear weapons Israel produced depends on how much Plutonium has been produced at Dimona. The credibility of Vanunu‘s statement is essential in trying to assess Israel‘s nuclear capability.
According to Mordechai Vanunu the Nuclear Reactor at Dimona was scaled up twice, the first was from 26 MW(t) to 70 MW(t), and the second just before he arrived at the facility was from 70 MW(t) to some higher level which produced 40 kg of Plutonium every year. This study assumes that the Dimona Reactor was operated at 150 MW(t) by 1977, which would result in producing 40 kg of Plutonium per year.
From this the maximum and minimum yearly output of weapons-grade Plutonium fuel can be estimated, and the number of Plutonium based nuclear weapons that can be produced. (see Appendix).
This is shown in the next chart in three stages:
> First being that Dimona operated at a capacity of 26 MWt from 1963 until end of 1969, then from 1970 up to 1976 it operated at the upgraded capacity of 70 MWt.
>Total Plutonium produced if the reactor was operating 60% of the time is 147 kg. This is would produce 29 weapons that are 5 kg (10 kt yield), or 18 weapons that are 8 kg (20 kt yield).
> Total Plutonium produced if the reactor was operating 90% of the time is 224 kg. This is would produce 45 weapons that are 5 kg (10 kt yield), or 28 weapons that are 8 kg (20 kt yield).
Second: Dimona continues to operate at Capacity of 70 Mega Waat from 1976 until 2008 i.e. no upgrade up to 150 MWt.
* Total Plutonium produced if the reactor was operating 60% of the time is 627 kg. This is would produce
125 weapons that are 5 kg (10 kt yield), or 78 weapons that are 8 kg (20 kt yield).
* Total Plutonium produced if the reactor was operating 90% of the time is 960 kg. This is would produce
192 weapons that are 5 kg (10 kt yield), or 120 weapons that are 8 kg (20 kt yield).
Third : Dimona operates at Capacity of 150 MWt from 1976 until 2008, according to Mordecai Vanunu.
- Total Plutonium produced if the reactor was operating 60% of the time is 1203 kg. This is would produce 240 weapons that are 5 kg (10 kt yield), or 150 weapons that are 8 kg (20 kt yield).
- Total Plutonium produced if the reactor was operating 90% of the time is 1791 kg. This is would produce 358 weapons that are 5 kg (10 kt yield), or 223 weapons that are 8 kg (20 kt yield).
Our calculated estimate comes out to be consistent and close with what was written about Dimona by David Albright at the ISIS.
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