Many analysts consider Pakistan’s ballistic missile program to be a response to India’s ballistic missiles, its sophisticated air defense system, and India’s large and well-equipped armed forces. Some experts feel that relatively rapid advances in Pakistan’s missile program are a result of competition between Samar Mubarak
Mund of the National Development Complex, responsible for solid-fuel missiles and Abdul Qadeer Khan of the Khan Research Laboratories where liquid-fueled missiles are produced. Despite these two competing organizations, Pakistan relies heavily on North Korean, Chinese, and, to a lesser degree, Iranian assistance in its missile program.
Prior to 1989, Pakistan’s missile arsenal was comprised primarily of Hatf I rockets119 and Hatf II missiles with ranges of 80 and 280 km, respectively. India’s 1989 launch of its Agni I missile, in conjunction with the U.S. denial of delivery of F-16 aircraft120 to Pakistan, is credited by many experts as central events that compelled Islamabad to pursue ballistic missiles as Pakistan’s primary means to deliver nuclear weapons. In 1992, Pakistan allegedly received M-11 missiles from China which are capable of carrying nuclear warheads to a range of approximately 300 km. Since this acquisition in 1992, much of Pakistan’s missile program has been devoted to the development of the Shaheen and Ghauri-series of ballistic missiles.
M-11 Missile
In 1992, China reportedly delivered to Pakistan between 30 and 84 unassembled M-11 missiles with a 300 km range and a 500 kg payload capacity. The M-11’s separating warhead is considered by many experts as a desirable characteristic for nuclear weapons delivery, but limited range precludes its use to strike New Delhi or large population centers lying beyond the Indian Desert. The M-11 is a road-mobile, solid propellant missile with a 600 m CEP that, in addition to high explosive, sub munition, and chemical warheads, can possibly deliver a variety of nuclear warheads with 2, 10, or 20 KT yields. It is possible that M-11s
may be fitted with GPS technology to increase their accuracy.
These sanctions, imposed in 1991 and 1993 for Great Wall Industries' export of M-11 tactical ballistic missile technology exports to Pakistan, however, were lifted in no small part because of U.S. satellite manufacturers' desires to unfettered access to Chinese launch services. More important, the need U.S. satellite makers have to assure successful launches have tempted them all too frequently to share some of America's most sensitive missile technology.
Hatf I Missile
The Hatf I is believed to be a single-stage, solid propellant rocket with a 60 to 80 km range carrying a 500 kg payload or a 350 km range carrying a 100 kg payload.121 Some analysts speculate that the limited range and payload capacity of these rockets would preclude the use of a nuclear warhead and more likely payloads
include high explosives, submunitions, and possibly chemical weapons.122 The Hatf I’s accuracy is unknown and Pakistan may have as many of 80 of these rockets.
Hatf II Missile
The Hatf II is a two-stage, solid propellant missile of 280 km range with a 500 kg payload or a 450 km range with a 300 kg payload.124 The Hatf II program is believed to have been terminated due to technical problems but some analysts speculate that in addition to high explosive and chemical payloads, that the
Hatf II was intended to carry a nuclear warhead.
Shaheen I Missile
The Shaheen I is a solid propellant, single warhead missile reportedly developed by Dr. Samar Mubarak Mund’s National Development Complex. Many analysts consider the Shaheen I a scaled-up version of the Chinese M-11 missile. The Shaheen I has a reported range of 600 km, an accuracy of 200 m, and can carry a 750 kg, 35 KT nuclear warhead or conventional or chemical munitions. Because launch preparations for the solid-fueled, road-mobile Shaheen I are relatively short, the missile reportedly can be launched within 5 to 10 minutes of its arrival at a pre-surveyed launch site. Some analysts speculate that Pakistan may have had from 5 to 10 Shaheen Is available for testing and operational use by the end of 1999 and more may have been produced since then.
Shaheen II Missile
The Shaheen II is a road-mobile, two-stage, solid propellant ballistic missile also developed by Pakistan’s National Development Complex. Many analysts speculate that the Shaheen II is based on the Chinese M-18 missile. The Shaheen II reportedly has a 2,500 km range, a 350 m CEP, and can carry a 750 kg 15 to 35 KT nuclear warhead, as well as high explosives, submunitions, chemical, and fuel-air explosives. The Shaheen II is also believed to have a separating reentry vehicle and its accuracy may be enhanced through the use of GPS technology. The Shaheen II was first publically displayed in March 2000 and it is not believed to have
been flight tested to date. Some experts speculate that Pakistan may have produced from 5 to 10 Shaheen IIs.
Ghauri I Missile
The Ghauri-series of road-mobile, liquid propellant missiles are produced in Pakistan’s Khan Research Laboratories. Many analysts believe that the Ghauri I is based on North Korea’s No Dong I and II missile. Reports that Iran’s Shahab III missile appears to be very similar in design to the Ghauri I have led to
widespread speculation by intelligence officials that Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran have collaborated in the development of these missiles. The Ghauri I is believed to have a range of 1,500 km, and accuracy of 2,500 m, and could deliver a 760 kg 15 to 35 KT nuclear warhead which Pakistan has alleged to have tested in May 1998. The Ghauri I is believed to have been operationally deployed in late 1998 by Pakistan’s 47th Artillery Brigade with 5-10 missiles available for testing or operational use.
Pakistan is believed to have started development of the Ghauri I in 1993 with North Korean assistance. Experts believe that the Ghauri I is essentially a North Korean No Dong missile. India’s interception in June, 1999 of a ship carrying a large amount of missile technology from North Korea to Pakistan has raised the issue that North Korean missile technology may be able to help Pakistan achieve ranges out to 8,000 km. There is also evidence that Pakistan is reciprocating and assisting North Korea in its missile program. Pakistan has been accused of providing North Korea with test data from Ghauri test flights for its use in improving its No Dong missiles despite North Korea’s self-imposed 1999 moratorium on long range missile test flights.Some experts have also suggested that Pakistan is providing valuable solid-fuel propulsion technology from its Chinese-based Shaheen missiles for North Korea’s use in the Taepo Dong missile program. In 1993, Pakistani and Iranian specialists were alleged to have traveled to North Korea to observe the launch of a
No Dong and three SCUD missiles. Some suggest that Pakistani-Iranian missile cooperation has deteriorated. Amin Tarzi, writing for the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California, claims that the relationship has lessened because of reported anti-Shiite activities in Pakistan and Islamabad’s policies towards Afghanistan related to the U.S. war on terror in the region.
Ghauri II Missile
The Ghauri II is believed to be a lengthened and improved version of the Ghauri I, possibly employing new propellants and a motor assembly. The Ghauri II’s accuracy is unknown but its range is believed to be between 1,800 to 2,300 km and could also accommodate a 15 to 35 KT nuclear warhead as well as the
full range of warheads available for the Ghauri I. A Ghauri III missile has been reported to be in development with a possible 3,000 km range and motor tests for this missile were believed to have taken place in July and September 1999.
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