Set of circumstances that could accelerate a strike on Iran‘s Nuclear Facilities :
By 2010 Iran could pose a serious threat to it‘s neighbors and Israel. Enough of an inventory of Nuclear Weapons that can serve as a deterrent against U.S. and Israeli strikes.
• A modern SAM air defense system, such as the Russian S-300PMU2 ―Favorit‖, giving Iran an advanced Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) capability in addition to an advanced SAM Air Defense System.
• A maritime capability that can threaten commercial shipping and Naval Forces in the Gulf , and possibly interrupt the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.
• Having in it‘s possession highly accurate short, medium and long range ballistic missiles, capable of carrying WMD
• Train and Control a number of Counter Insurgency groups to Increase the threat of asymmetric attacks against
American interests and allies in the region and even beyond the region.
Options to deal with Iran’s Nuclear Program within the Time Frame
- Diplomacy and Dialog:
Efforts to persuade Iran to not proliferate, and by convincing Iran that it does not face a sufficient threat to proliferate and cannot make major gains in power or security by doing so.
Options that give Iran security guarantees, economic and trade advantages.
Creation of a mix of defensive and offensive measures that would both deny Iran the ability to exploit its
WMD capabilities and show that any effort to use such weapons to intimidate or gain military advantage would be offset by the response.
Controls and measures designed to put economic pressure on Iran, limit its access to technology, and/or
limit its access to arms.
- Regime change:
Efforts to change the regime and create one that will not proliferate.
A mix of measures like missile defense, air defense, counterterrorism, counter smuggling/covert operations capability, civil defense, and passive defense that would both deter Iran and protect against any use it can
make of its WMD capabilities.
Creation of military threats to Iran so great that no rational Iranian leader could see an advantage from using weapons of mass destruction.
- Preventive or Preemptive Strikes Before Iran has a Significant Nuclear Force:
Military options that would destroy Iran‘s ability to proliferate and/or deploy significant nuclear forces. To build an international consensus to allow the use military force as a last resort when all other options absolutely fail.